This same conclusion is also true of many individual states. On the next chart is a list of the general results had the same competitions included each of the fifty US states competing individually–not just Montana, alone. It should be noted that this additional change in circumstances basically doubles the amount of participants in the testing with roughly half of them being US states. In that scenario, there are some additional encouraging results. As an example, in 4th grade science, US states would’ve claimed seven of the top ten spots, and that jumps to nine of the top ten in 8th grade science. Even more outstanding is 4th grade reading, where US states also would’ve also taken nine of the top ten spots, including first place and sweeping the medals. Kudos to the many other US states for doing so well–many of whom would have fared just as well as Montana as the USA’s delegation in this Olympiad!
Since additional test results allowed for further extrapolation and projection at a more local level, there is still more remarkable insight comparing the world’s top nations in education with the USA, Montana, and even Swan River School. While a perfect science in this statistical analysis cannot be claimed, the results nevertheless showed at least the same pattern in each of the six events. The USA’s red performance bar was in each case the lowest. Montana’s blue performance bar was always higher than the USA’s. Moreover, Swan River School’s green performance bar was higher than Montana’s and near or surpassing the the black performance bar representing the world’s top nations. We can thus conclude that the quality of education in Montana was very good among US states. We can further conclude that within Montana, Swan River School’s education was also very good. Based on those results, it is possible to suggest that if Swan River School had been the USA’s delegation in the competition, our Warriors might have brought home four gold medals out of the six events. Outstanding!
Even though those events were only in three subjects and two grade levels, it is a great credit to all our teachers, staff, families and community–and not just in 2012, but throughout the many years before and since. In this same vein, Swan River School met the increasingly rigorous No Child Left Behind expectations for standardized test achievement for ten consecutive years–a remarkable accomplishment, which had been thought to be unattainable. It is also worth noting that several other schools in our valley likewise achieved that same status and recognition, and we feel honored to work alongside them and appreciate their high standards for education.
The sample size for our school is no doubt very small in comparison to whatever the sample size may have been for the other states and nations that participated in those standardized tests. The reality is, our school is so small that we generally do not talk in terms of numbers, because one student in a typically sized classroom for us represents about 6% of the total class. That 6%, or one student, is probably enough, in these analyses, to make the difference between first place and tenth place in the final standings. Hence, when we talk about student achievement at our school, the truth is we talk in terms of individual students rather than percentages.
The final conclusion, therefore, is great education happens at Swan River School! Our teachers deliver high quality instruction. Our students work hard at their learning. Our parents and families do much good in promoting the value of education. It is claim backed by the evidence presented in this educational Olympiad.
Now what? Do we rest on our laurels? Of course not. To us is presented the challenge of taking what is already a great school and figuring out how to make it even better. Furthermore, with the departure from NCLB and its exclusive emphasis on standardized test results, and with the implementation of its replacement, the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA), states and local schools are empowered to redefine success and achievement in education.
At Swan River School, we embrace this challenge.
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The 2011 TIMSS provides data on 8th grade science results among nations across the world. On the left, we see the USA finishing 10th. Again, multiple states also took the TIMSS and top individual scores are placed on the center list. Note Massachusetts finished with the second highest score in the world. Montana was not one of the states that participated independently in the TIMSS, but Montana and Massachusetts both took the NAEP science test for 8th graders at about that same time. NAEP’s interpretation of the scores indicates that there was no significant difference between the results for Massachusetts and Montana on that 8th grade science test. Therefore, the list on the right depicts the results based on NAEP’s interpretation of scores and the hypothetical scenario of the USA having Montana as their only delegation in this event. In that scenario, Montana-USA would impressively finish second among nearly 60 nations in the world.
Your medal winners in 8th grade science are Singapore with gold, Montana-USA silver, and Chinese-Taipei bronze.
What about Swan River School? What if the USA delegation were even smaller than Montana and they could only send our Warriors to compete in this 8th grade science event? How might we do? Is there a way to possibly predict this? Well, using the MontCAS data allows for something of a data based guess at this. As you can see, the extrapolated green bar is most impressive in this case with Swan River School finishing with achievement scores an astounding 18% higher that Montana’s. Where Montana was already in the second place position in the world, this score that is 18% higher would propel Swan River far beyond Singapore’s TIMSS score and earn the Warriors a gold medal.
With that as the concluding event, we next look forward to our closing ceremonies and final thoughts.
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Referring again to the TIMSS for 8th grade math scores, we see on the left that the USA ranks 9th in the world. The center list shows that several states took this same test independently, and four of their scores comprise the latter half of the top ten with Massachusetts finishing highest among them, at number six. Referring back to the NAEP scores for 8th grade math, the results again indicate that there was no significant difference between Massachusetts score and Montana’s. Here again, therefore, we see on the right the results as if Montana were the only state to represent the USA in this competition, and again, it is reasonable to conclude that in such a circumstance, Montana might have finished 6th in the world. That is a good effort, but not enough to win a medal.
On the podium for 8th grade math we have South Korea winning the gold medal, Singapore takes the silver, and the bronze goes to Chinese-Taipei.
How might Swan River School do in this event? MontCAS data from that year shows the our Warriors really delivered an epic performance, finishing an astounding 14% higher than Montana. The extrapolation for those results would seem to vault us even beyond South Korea into a first place finish.
Thus far, no medals for Montana-USA in the 8th grade portion of the events. Will that change in the final event, 8th grade science?
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The 2011 PISA test results show on the left a disappointing 24th place finish for the USA in reading among students who are about one year removed from 8th grade. The center list includes individual states performance on the PISA, and of the few that participates, we note Massachusetts placed 6th in the world. Massachusetts also took the 8th grade reading NAEP test, as did Montana. The results of that NAEP test indicate no significant difference in the test scores of Massachusetts and Montana. Thus, if Montana were the lone state to represent the USA in this competition, it is reasonable to conclude that our state would have placed 6th in the world, as shown on the right That’s not good enough to make the podium, but it’s a far cry better than 24th in the world.
Your medal winners for 8th grade reading are Shanghai-China taking gold, Hong Kong the silver, and Singapore with bronze.
MontCAS test results from that same year allow for a glimpse of how Swan River School might fare were they the only representative in the competition. Here we see the green bar showing that our Warriors again outpaced Montana by 2%. It wouldn’t be enough to catch Shanghai-China, nor would it probably be enough to medal. However, as added insight, in more recent years, our 8th graders have performed exceptionally well on standardized reading tests, typically finishing about 10% higher than the average Montana score. That huge margin certainly would be enough to medal and surpass Shanghai-China for gold.
The next event up will be 8th grade math, which something like alpine skiing.
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In the 2011 TIMSS, the USA ranked 7th, as shown on the left. On the center list, we see that Florida and North Carolina also participated as independent states, but in this event, the scores for both states are on par with the USA score. There were no NAEP test results for 4th grade science for that year, however, looking at trends from NAEP tests from about that same time shows with fair consistency that Montana ranked very–typically about #2 among all fifty states with a score 5% higher than Florida–with Florida still ranking in the middle of the pack in those same NAEP trends. Thus, Montana scoring 5% higher than Florida is significant, and would figure to project Montana to about #3 in the world, as shown on the right. This is supported by the fact that 8th grade NAEP science scores are also consistently excellent for Montana. That’s a little more of a roundabout and subjective way to arrive at a conclusion for this event, but hey, it’s like figure skating.
On the podium for 4th grade science we see that South Korea take the gold, Singapore wins silver, and we’ll award Montana-USA with the bronze.
Adding in the MontCAS test results and the green bar for Swan River, we find that our school scored 4% higher than Montana as a whole. Where Montana was already an impressive 7% higher than the USA score and just 1% shy of the world leader, South Korea, Swan River’s 4% higher score over Montana should be significant enough to leapfrog past South Korea for gold.
With the worldwide education Olympiad now half over, the competition is wide open with Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Montana-USA all leading with two medals each. If you’d rather replace the USA delegation of Montana with Swan River School in this competition, then you could make a claim, based on the extrapolated data, that we have won two gold medals in three events.
We now move on to the 8th grade events and will begin with reading, which is somewhat like the bobsled competition in the Olympics.
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The 2011 TIMSS assessment shows on the left that the USA finished a rather disappointing 11th in 4th grade math among the nations of the world. North Carolina also participated independently in the 2011 TIMSS with a score that surpassed the USA’s score. As shown in the center list, North Carolina’s score placed 7th in the world on the TIMSS. Montana did not take the TIMSS, but Montana and North Carolina both took the NAEP test, and both states had basically the same score. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude in this competition having Montana as USA’s representative, our state would have finished 7th, which is a ways off from medaling. This is shown on the list on the right.
Your medalists for 4th grade reading are Singapore wins gold, South Korea earns the silver, and Hong Kong is on the podium again, this time taking bronze.
As before, when we add the MontCAS results to the data, it shows that Swan River scored 4% higher than Montana. Montana’s score was just 2% higher than the USA’s yet that vaulted Montana ahead three places in the standings. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that if Swan River’s score was 4% higher than Montana’s, it would possibly vault our school a few places higher and into medal contention. It is still quite a ways off of Singapore’s lofty score. Even so, we can reasonably conclude that our Swan River School students are very solid in 4th grade math.
The next event will be 4th grade science, which will be a competition that bears a strong resemblance to Olympic event of figure skating.
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The PIRLS test provides data on 4th grade reading achievement among nations throughout the world. Looking at the results on the left, we see the USA comes in ranked 6th. Not bad, but not exactly elite either, and certainly not good enough to make the podium. Even so. In addition to the USA taking the PIRLS test that year, the state of Florida took the same test independently and did very well–so well, in fact, that Florida earned the 2nd highest score in the world, just behind Hong Kong. This is shown on the center list. Montana did not take the PIRLS test, but they did take the NAEP test along with Florida and every other state. NAEP test results from that year show that Montana’s 4th grade reading scores were identical to Florida’s. Thus, if Montana was the USA’s delegation, alone, in this Olympic education event, it is reasonable to conclude that Montana would have finished second place in the world, as shown on the right.
The results of the first event are thus, Hong Kong takes gold, Montana-USA takes silver, and Finland earns the bronze.
As an additional insight, if we extrapolate using more test data, we can see how Swan River School might have fared against the same competition. PIRLS and NAEP data gives us the black, red and blue bars. The green bar is added when we throw in the statewide MontCAS scores for 4th grade reading. If we can assume Montana’s 2012 NAEP score for 4th grade reading is equivalent to the average Montana score on the 2012 MontCAS for 4th grade reading, it reveals that Swan River School scored an impressive 7% higher than Montana. If we then project that same percentage difference back on the PIRLS test results, it would figure to put Swan River even ahead of Hong Kong’s score. Even if it is a stretch to so extrapolate, it is nevertheless reasonable to conclude that Swan River School’s 4th grade reading achievement is excellent, even when judged by the highest test score standards in the world. Just think of it, Swan River School’s 4th graders take the gold in reading!
Our next event will be 4th grade math, which might somewhat resemble the winter Olympics event of speed skating.
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